Ukraine likely to see a Georgian situation?

[ecocks]

And just to kickstart your thought process, here is a new KP Editorial with one view of the impact of the Georgia situation and what it bodes for Ukraine's future...

http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/editorial/29402/

[rjm]

Just what I expect from KP, not alot of real fact in that article!

On the subject of NATO they claim that the obstacle is Yanukovich and Party Of The regions, completely wrong!!!! The obstacle is the fact that the Ukrainian people DONT want it, any opinion poll will back this up but they conveniently seem to have forgotten this fact.

To answer the actual qyuestion I would say that it is unlikely, the only thing that would change this is if Ukraine developed a Saakashvili type policy of deliberately trying to provoke Russia, with this in mind I would hope for a non Timoshenko future for Ukraine!

[Packman]

But I think the article suggest a sales job on the Ukrainian population for NATO.  I trust with such  brazen acts by Russia the population realizes NATO is really the only thing that could stop Puty Put from sending Russian tanks to Maidan when he decides he want to take Crimea back.

[MWDabbs]

After 60 years, Putin and Russia still have not learned the value of logistics.  Factor Russia at a very generous $2 trillion GDP...and contrast that to EU's 16.8 trillion, USA's 13.8 trillion, without consideration of other likely allies.

How many friends does Russia have?  Belorussia, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Syria and Iran (sorta), Serbia, and...portions of Ukraine and Moldova - obviously all economic powerhouses able to muster a combined GDP of almost $1.3 trillion...

Frightening...

[Packman]

After 60 years, Putin and Russia still have not learned the value of logistics.  Factor Russia at a very generous $2 trillion GDP...and contrast that to EU's 16.8 trillion, USA's 13.8 trillion, without consideration of other likely allies.

How many friends does Russia have?  Belorussia, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Syria and Iran (sorta), Serbia, and...portions of Ukraine and Moldova - obviously all economic powerhouses able to muster a combined GDP of almost $1.3 trillion...

Frightening...

Yeah but Russia has oil and the natural gas that heats most of western europe's homes in the winter.  Maybe due to global warming they will lose there leverage.  Bring on the warm winters

Once that happens the western euro's won't go so limp wristed in the face of puty put.

[SteveH]

We will not be the next on Russia's hitlist,
 vows defiant Ukraine
The invasion of Georgia means that Nato must quickly expand eastwards, the Ukrainian President tells The Times
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4592825.ece
Viktor Yushchenko, the Ukrainian President, was in a fierce and defiant mood yesterday as he urged Nato to respond to the Russian invasion of Georgia by moving quickly to expand the frontiers of the alliance eastwards.

In an exclusive interview with The Times Mr Yushchenko asserted that the fundamentals of international politics had changed. Ukraine had to do everything in its power to ensure it was not going to be next on the Kremlin hitlist.

“It is the first time in Europe since the Cold War that a foreign army has entered the territory of a sovereign state without any internationally accepted legal basis,” he said.

[P-N]

I guess as Ukraine does not recognise Kosovo (at least officially......or it did not as of end of March this year.....may have changed  ) he may have forgotten it.

NATO circumvented the UN deliberately when military action started in Serbia, as they knew Russia and China would almost certainly veto any such action. 

Therefore this is the second time in Europe since the Cold War that this has happened.  A mere technicality though. 

As NATO, unanimously, has clearly stated that Ukraine and Georgia has the door open to it, maybe he should be trying to influence the population of Ukraine first and foremost to overturn their desire to remain outside NATO.  As much as I understand his concerns to "motivate" NATO members abroad to expedite Ukraine's membership, one of both Germany and France's "public" reasons for deferment was that the population did not want membership.

Here is the Q and A interview:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4593424.ece

[ecocks]

Worries continue to mount as everyone tries to gauge what Russia's real objectives are...

"I repeat that it is very dangerous, and there are other objectives that one can suppose are objectives for Russia, in particular the Crimea, Ukraine and Moldova," said Kouchner, whose country holds the European Union's rotating presidency.

- French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner

"Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned another former Soviet republic, Moldova, on Monday not to make the same mistake as Georgia by trying to seize back control of its breakaway pro-Russian region, Transdniestria."

The article:

http://www.kyivpost.com/top/29492/

Cold War or no, there is real fear - particularly in Eastern Europe - that Russia's ambitions go beyond Georgia, and that its actions demand more than lip service.

Apparently they just updated that article with this one:

http://www.kyivpost.com/top/29528/

[P-N]

Bernard Kouchner is known as a "drama queen" and indecisive individual throughout France and the EU:

"On the US-led invasion of Iraq
Kouchner is a long-time advocate of humanitarian intervention. In early 2003, he pronounced himself in favour of removing Saddam Hussein as President of Iraq, arguing that interference against dictatorship should be a global priority, and continued to say that now, the focus should be on the actual people themselves, and that they are the only ones who could answer yes or no to war.

In a February 4, 2003 editorial with Antoine Veil in Le Monde, entitled "Neither War Nor Saddam," Kouchner said that he was opposed to the impending War in Iraq, and, as the title suggests, to the remaining in power of Saddam Hussein, the removal of whom should be accomplished via a concerted United Nations, preferably diplomatic, solution.[6] [7]"

His stance on Iraq - he backed down when "push came to shove".


"In the Fillon government
After the election of Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007, Kouchner was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs in François Fillon's government, even though Kouchner supported Sarkozy's Socialist rival Ségolène Royal during the campaign. He has since been expelled from the Socialist Party for his acceptance of the post"

His political stance changed 180 degrees.


[edit] Comments on Iran nuclear situation
In September 2007, Kouchner's public comments on the Iranian nuclear situation attracted much attention and controversy. In an interview on September 16, 2007, he said, "We will negotiate until the end. And at the same time we must prepare ourselves [...] for the worst.... The worst, it’s war...." [10]. He stated that France was committed to a diplomatic resolution and that no military action was planned, but that an Iranian nuclear weapon would pose "a real danger for the whole world". [11] Iranian officials criticized the comments as "inflammatory"[12]. The chief UN nuclear inspector Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency indirectly responded to Kouchner by characterizing talk of attacking Iran as "hype," saying the use of force should only be considered as a last resort and only if authorized by the UN Security Council.[13]

"I would not talk about any use of force," he said. On September 18, 2007, Kouchner attempted to respond to criticisms. In comments to newspaper Le Monde, he stated, "I do not want it to be said that I am a warmonger! [...] My message was a message of peace, of seriousness and of determination. [...] The worst situation would be war. To avoid that, the French attitude is to negotiate, negotiate, negotiate, without fear of being rebuffed, and to work with our European friends on credible sanctions."


His comments on Iran - first having talked about use of force, then denying it.


Comments on the Irish ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon
In the run up to the referendum in the Republic of Ireland on the ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon, Kouchner warned that any "No" vote towards the treaty would be detrimental to Ireland and the Irish economy. He also commented that "It would be very, very awkward if we were not able to count on the Irish, who have often counted on Europe."[15]. His comments were dismissed as "unhelpful" by leading Irish politicians, and some media commentators have suggested that his remarks may have galvanised the "No" campaign in the run up to the rejection of the Lisbon Treaty on 13 June 2008


His help in uniting Europe via the Lisbon Treaty


Comments on the European Union and a unity government for Zimbabwe
On 1 July 2008, France assumed presidency of the Council of the European Union. In his capacity as the French foreign minister, he commented after the African Union summit, that The European Union would only recognise a Zimbabwe unity government headed by Morgan Tsvangirai not Robert Mugabe.


His comments prior to the elections in Zimbabwe.

(All extracts courtesy of wiki)


Quote from the leader of Moldova when with Medvedev on Monday:

The Moldovan leader told Medvedev he had indeed learned the lesson: "Thank God, during all these years...we had enough brains and reserve not to allow a similar deterioration of situation."

"Frozen conflicts are a real volcano which can blow up anytime," Voronin added. "That is why taking into account what had happened elsewhere it would be useful if we exercised again such wisdom not to allow such things to repeat in our country."

[P-N]

Apparently they just updated that article with this one:

http://www.kyivpost.com/top/29528/

Strangely reads very similar to this article - one could almost say word for word:

http://fe26.news.re3.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080829/ap_on_re_eu/the_georgia_conundrum


Maybe we could put this into the "Games" section and see what else the KP will cut and paste.....without mentioning the individual writers like Yahoo and others do 

I want a job at the KP - even I can cut and paste with my limited IT skills - to get paid for it......even better 

[SteveH]

EU to remain cautious on Ukraine
 
 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7606014.stm

Mr Sarkozy knows some EU members are not keen on Ukraine joining
The European Union is expected to offer Ukraine an association agreement during a summit in the French capital.

Ukraine's president is seeking a strong signal that the country belongs within Europe, diplomats say, to deter Moscow from intervening as it did in Georgia.

But the accord is more likely to represent a broad pact merely hinting towards possible future EU membership.

Russian officials have been angered by moves by Ukraine and Georgia to strengthen ties with Europe.

The 27 EU member states are expected to present the prospect of gradually closer links with Ukraine during the Paris summit.

Some EU member states, including The Netherlands, Germany and Italy, have in the past been reluctant to allow any explicit statement confirming Ukraine's future membership of the bloc.

But Ukraine is seen as a key energy transit route and as vital to the union's long-term security and energy strategy.
 

[Tim]

“It is the first time in Europe since the Cold War that a foreign army has entered the territory of a sovereign state without any internationally accepted legal basis,” he said.

Yeah, I also laughed. I always said Rada didn't really need an impeachment to remove him, it could much easier be done due to his obvious insanity. They could even claim this as a result of dioxin poisoning which is certainly a myth but very helpful myth in this particular case.

[P-N]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-warns-ukraine-it-will-retaliate-over-nato-925587.html

[Private_Banker]

How many friends does Russia have?  Belorussia, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Syria and Iran (sorta), Serbia, and...portions of Ukraine and Moldova - obviously all economic powerhouses able to muster a combined GDP of almost $1.3 trillion...

Frightening...

Is that a complete list of Russian friends? Shoudn`t we consider China, and probably India.

Frightening...

[MWDabbs]

Actually, in both cases - definitely no.  China did sign a non-aggression pact with Russia recently.  But, China has far more a generally pro-west Japan/Asia, EU and US than it does from Russia and its allies' combined 4% of GWP. 

China, more than any other country, had the greatest basis for supporting Russia's actions in Georgia (Taiwan) - but stopped far, far short of endorsing it.  If non-aggression pacts define "friendships" - (I won't kick your butt, if you don't kick mine) - then...well, I dunno.  While the West's relationship with China is not at its high point - it's certainly not at a low point either. 

India is more neutral and interested in what is good for India; it's happy to receive investments from anyone.  But again, India stands more to gain from the rest of the world than it does from Russia, as well.  It has its issues with Kashmere, but it acts on a greater interest in a stable Pakistan than it does for disputed territory.  India's not going to jeopardize its growth over two small towns in the Caucasus. 

The article below, referenced by the Kyiv Post, I think really sums up the situation for Russia quite well.

http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1016/42/370643.htm

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