Trouble for Yuliya Ahead?

[BritKyiv]

Yushchenko said the nation is witnessing “the beginning of a political and constitutional coup” and that these laws impose the “dictatorship of the prime minister.”

“All these anti­constitutional laws will be vetoed,” he said in a televised address to the nation on Sept. 3.

Yushchenko said the events in the Rada ended the existence of the democratic coalition, and that “de facto, a new parliamentary coalition has been created.” He then went on to threaten an early election if a new alliance is not formalized within 30 days after the breakup of the previous coalition, the  deadline allowed by the Constitution.

About 2-3 months ago a reliable political source told me that Bloc Yulia T was in talks with Party of the Regions via Rinat Akhmetov (Ukraines richest man) about a power sharing deal. As you can imagine at the time I thought the suggestion/tip off was just unbelievable. But this is Ukraine, and we now hear that Mrs T may have done a closed deal with the Party of the Regions to keep Mr Yushenko at bay.

So Mrs T has created an alliance with the Party of the Regions. I wonder how all those people who stood on Independence Square in late 2004 feel about that?

[P-N]

You can see what will happen already.  Mrs T will become President.  Mr Y of Party Regions will become PM.  Mrs T will remain West looking, Mr Y, East looking, at least publically.  Behind closed doors, both probably feel Ukraine should become a neutral country (allowing them to keep the status quo as far as Ukraines personal finances in the RADA go, running smoothly and not interupted by either Kremlin or the EU).  Both will outwardly blame each other for the prevention of either closer European or Russian ties respectively therefore ensuring nothing but neutrality (and continued personal wealth).   Russia will be fairly happy with this as there will not be NATO on the doorstep and Germany, France and Italy will be fairly happy with this also for exactly the same reason - Russia will not be on NATO's doorstep.

Most other things with regards direct internal Ukrainian evolution will actually happen with the broad agreement of both Mrs T and Mr Y, to keep both in power for the forseeable future as domestic progress will be seen to be made.

Method in the madness.

[Carlushika]

On the nail, Nik, exactly how I see things develop over time. Method indeed in the madness!

You can see what will happen already.  Mrs T will become President.  Mr Y of Party Regions will become PM.  Mrs T will remain West looking, Mr Y, East looking, at least publically.  Behind closed doors, both probably feel Ukraine should become a neutral country (allowing them to keep the status quo as far as Ukraines personal finances in the RADA go, running smoothly and not interupted by either Kremlin or the EU).  Both will outwardly blame each other for the prevention of either closer European or Russian ties respectively therefore ensuring nothing but neutrality (and continued personal wealth).   Russia will be fairly happy with this as there will not be NATO on the doorstep and Germany, France and Italy will be fairly happy with this also for exactly the same reason - Russia will not be on NATO's doorstep.

Most other things with regards direct internal Ukrainian evolution will actually happen with the broad agreement of both Mrs T and Mr Y, to keep both in power for the forseeable future as domestic progress will be seen to be made.

Method in the madness.

[3000ftup]

Great post Nik, that is probably the only safe long term situation for Ukraine

[P-N]

Armchair politics is a hobby of mine 3000ftup.  I may be wrong but it would seem the obviously solution to safe-guard personal interests politically, financially and preserve Ukraine with general good-will from the East and West.  It may/should also provide Ukraine with some form of political stability too - which is good for inward investment.

[Carlushika]

Snipped from the UK's Guardian news -

Yulia Tymoshenko might like to portray herself in front of some audiences as an eastern European Margaret Thatcher, but the reality is of a shameless economic populist. Yes, she supports privatisation – as does the president – but, for her, it is a means to enrich an oligarchic elite and fund lavish public spending.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/05/ukraine.russia?gusrc=rss&feed=worldnews

[rjm]

Yes I second that!!!

That is exactly the state of play as I can see it!

Timoshenko is extremely dangerous as she will turn to any policy or camp if she thinks she could gain political gains through it, how indeed must the Orange hordes at Maidan think now at this act of treachoury!!! Incredibly there are still a core of people who will vote for her,this says more about some Ukrainians than anything 

The only fly in the ointment is that I heard strong rumour this week from someone connected with government that there are big internal disputes within Party Of Regions and Yuriy Boyko is being heavily supported in a bid to replace Yanukovich as leader!

 

On the nail, Nik, exactly how I see things develop over time. Method indeed in the madness!

You can see what will happen already.  Mrs T will become President.  Mr Y of Party Regions will become PM.  Mrs T will remain West looking, Mr Y, East looking, at least publically.  Behind closed doors, both probably feel Ukraine should become a neutral country (allowing them to keep the status quo as far as Ukraines personal finances in the RADA go, running smoothly and not interupted by either Kremlin or the EU).  Both will outwardly blame each other for the prevention of either closer European or Russian ties respectively therefore ensuring nothing but neutrality (and continued personal wealth).   Russia will be fairly happy with this as there will not be NATO on the doorstep and Germany, France and Italy will be fairly happy with this also for exactly the same reason - Russia will not be on NATO's doorstep.

Most other things with regards direct internal Ukrainian evolution will actually happen with the broad agreement of both Mrs T and Mr Y, to keep both in power for the forseeable future as domestic progress will be seen to be made.

Method in the madness.

[P-N]

The only fly in the ointment is that I heard strong rumour this week from someone connected with government that there are big internal disputes within Party Of Regions and Yuriy Boyko is being heavily supported in a bid to replace Yanukovich as leader!

I heard the same thing rjm.  Apparantly Mr Y of Party Regions expelled a "leading female" from the party last week (I forget her name) for disagreeing with him over a statement he wanted to make.  She has been expelled but the statement has not been released to my knowledge.  I am fairly certain however, Mr Y will survive as leader.

[Carlushika]

Apparantly Mr Y of Party Regions expelled a "leading female" from the party last week (I forget her name) for disagreeing with him over a statement he wanted to make.  She has been expelled but the statement has not been released to my knowledge.  I am fairly certain however, Mr Y will survive as leader.

Raisa Bohatyryova, Nik. Apparenly she was expelled because -

Party of Regions announced last week that Ukraine should not openly support any side in the Russian-Georgian conflict. Besides, Party of Regions leader Victor Yanukovych called on to support Russia’s move and recognize the independence of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia breakaway regions of Georgia. However, during her visit to Washington, R.Bohatyryova claimed that the position of the Party of Regions leader on this issue was one-man, and was not any collective decision of the party, which may support another opinion.

http://unian.net/eng/news/news-270350.html

Government radio report -

http://www.nrcu.gov.ua/index.php?id=148&listid=73592

[P-N]

Yep, that was the lady.  Guess I won't be seeing much of her on TV for a while 

[P-N]

Gloves are off and the power struggle begins in earnest:

http://www.nrcu.gov.ua/index.php?id=148&listid=73865
http://www.nrcu.gov.ua/index.php?id=148&listid=73866
http://www.nrcu.gov.ua/index.php?id=148&listid=73864

[Carlushika]

The UK's Telegraph's take on the Yulia / Yush situation -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/2706210/Ukraine-president-Viktor-Yushchenko-accuses-PM-Yulia-Tymoshenko-of-treason.html

[P-N]

http://www.nrcu.gov.ua/index.php?id=148&listid=73948

I have to agree with the theory and I know which one I would chose of the 2 options.

[P-N]

http://www.nrcu.gov.ua/index.php?id=148&listid=74201

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