Regional Instability - Russia - Georgia

[MWDabbs]

Actually...there is a lot of BS about Iraq.  We (Coalition Forces), actually at the strong urge of Colin Powell, called a cease fire against Iraq in the first Gulf War, contingent upon a long list of items - that Iraq never fulfilled.

For a good 10 years, Iraq thumbed its nose at the United Nations weapon inspection teams.  For a good 10 years, Iraq did not return Coalition POWs...because they had been killed and tossed into mass graves.  Iraq did not return valuables looted from the Iraqi army's holiday in Kuwait. 

Iraq gave the UN a list of the NBC materials in its possession, but was never able to account for them - one way or the other.  Their BS in letting inspectors in some areas and not others, delaying here and there...not exactly grounds for demonstrating compliance.  UN issued resolution 1441 - passed unanimously for Iraq to comply with these things or face consequences.

All Hans Blix had to do was say YES or NO, Iraq is or is not in compliance with UN Res 1441.  Instead, all he could do wanting to play hero was say, "Iraq is kind of, sort of, not really, but they are getting better, and with more time, they might comply with 1441..."  Not once was there ever a yes or no.  Never did Blix confirm the disposition of several tons of mustard gas, vx, anthrax, etc.

Why?  Some was found - and most of that was mixed into regular munitions stocks - 155 howitzer rounds; a lot of which were stored in the open desert, hot sun/cold night - half buried under sand, with no record of when it got there, how much was there...and not exactly the kind of thing EOD is just going to rush in to clear. 

Comparing South Ossetia with Iraq is BULLSHIT of the HIGHEST MAGNITUDE.  There was solid basis for action in Iraq...with or without any terrorist connection.  Easy to concede Bush is not the brightest, and his PR team are babbling baffoons...but principally the action was a consequence of 1441.  All Blix had to do was say yes - Iraq is in compliance and the US would have had zero basis for entering Iraq.  Or, he could have said, Iraq is not in compliance...which would have forced the UN to do something...sometime in the next 50 years, maybe...   

It just seems 75% of the world is in advanced stages of Alzheimer's Disease or is otherwise incapable of the intestinal fortitude it takes to actually back up a resolution...Iraq's peace was dependent upon satisfying the terms of the cease fire, it failed to do so - at least someone was willing to enforce it.

The US went in precisely because the UN had no balls - France, Germany and Russia had their own deals for keeping Saddam in power, along with that pleasant stint with the Oil for Food Program....

[Packman]

I'd argue many of your points but I agree that the UN provided a fig leave for Bush's war in Iraq.  Nevertheless the Russians PR team will point to violations of cease fire etc. etc. for justifying their incursion. 

[P-N]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/2586051/Nato-offers-scant-comfort-for-Georgia-over-conflict-with-Russia.html

[ecocks]

The next phase begins....

Preparing the pretext:

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/20/georgia.russia.war/index.html

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/25/russia.vote/index.html?iref=topnews

Regrettable incidents:

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/24/russia.georgia/index.html

Chances for confrontation:

http://news.aol.com/article/us-warship-takes-aid-to-georgia/144946

[P-N]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080825/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_autumn_of_discontent;_ylt=Alfj4Lhd9uamhMmpjRDY.Yx0bBAF

[P-N]

The next phase begins....

Preparing the pretext:

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/20/georgia.russia.war/index.html

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/25/russia.vote/index.html?iref=topnews

If this happens, and IMHO I don't think it will immediately  (despite the votes in the Russian parliaments, as it would seem undermine the lengthy Russian efforts in Moldova to broker a deal there),  "we" (the nations who recognise it) could now reap what we have sewn in Serbia with Kosovo.

Russia, Spain, Cyprus and many others continually and vocally warned in particular that these regions in Georgia, Transdniestria in Moldova and the Basque area of Spain (to name but a few) would see it as a "green light" to push for similar international recognition by whatever means available to them.

If I am wrong and Russia do recognise these regions and no doubt are speedily denounced by "western leaders and the media", Russia will only be following the precident set by those short sighted and "altzimered" politicians who represent us.

Did nobody stop to think that Cyprus, Spain, Russia, Moldova, Ukraine and others with similar potential problems, should Kosovo have been recognised, have a point when they stated this would happen?

The point that nobody in the "West" may recognise these regions is irrelivant - half the planet does not recognise Kosovo.




 

[P-N]

Turns out I was wrong - Russia has recognised them immediately. 

They did have a precident to follow.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7582181.stm

[ecocks]

Mounting chances for confrontation...

The US said on Tuesday that its warships would deliver aid to Georgia's port of Poti, which is under Russian control. The move could mean US and Russian forces coming face-to-face.

- excerpted from the announcement that Russia had recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia

[P-N]

The "knock on" effect to Afghanistan won't be too clever if there is.  Currently Russia allows NATO planes and vehicles across it's territory with supplies.  Given the other route is via Pakistan and is always getting hit, supplies stolen and troops killed before the Government collapse in Pakistan this week (therefore even less stable or appealing now) - any form of confrontation will definately close that area of cooperation by Russia too.

I see N Korea has already stopped it's nuclear wind-down (in a political effort no doubt to show indirect support for Russia who is the main intermediary between the USA and themselves).

[ecocks]

General condemnation by western governments....

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/26/russia.vote.georgia/index.html

Tightening tension (hmmm, redundant I suppose?)

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/26/russia.georgia.oakley.analysis/index.html

[azzice]

From CNN article:

Western nations have expressed support for Georgia, which aspires to NATO and European Union membership, with the U.S. dispatching a major humanitarian aid mission.

European Union? But Georgia is not geographically located in Asia?
 

[rjm]

I think the idea of Georgia being a EU member is barmy based on geographical reasons alone! 

The way this ridiculous European Union is going we will be accepting membership from North Korea soon!!!

[P-N]

I think the idea of Georgia being a EU member is barmy based on geographical reasons alone! 

The way this ridiculous European Union is going we will be accepting membership from North Korea soon!!!

I have to agree with you rjm.  Georgia is not European and should not be allowed into the EU or NATO for simple geographical reasons alone.  The clue to anyone hopeful entrant and the existing members granting entry (with regards to the EU) is surely in the title of the organisation.

Georgia's location - extract taken from Wiki:

Transcontinental location
The geographical inclusion of Georgia in Eastern Europe is a controversial subject related to Georgia's desire to become part of NATO. Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty limits membership extension to European states.[46] Consequently, Georgia needs geographical appurtenance to Europe in order to technically qualify for membership. Virtually all existing maps align Europe's southeastern border with the skyline of the Caucasus Mountains. According to this definition, Georgia is not in Europe, while Azerbaijan is, as roughly 3000 km² of its northeastern territory lays north of the Caucasus Mountains range.


Obviously Russia will not be the only ones "redrawing the European map" as Ms Rice stated when it comes to Georgia and political expediency 

[P-N]

Mounting chances for confrontation...

The US said on Tuesday that its warships would deliver aid to Georgia's port of Poti, which is under Russian control. The move could mean US and Russian forces coming face-to-face.

- excerpted from the announcement that Russia had recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7583801.stm

Somebody had some common sense in Washington.  No reason to put either military face to face unnecessarily and risk the consequences.

[Packman]

From CNN article:

Western nations have expressed support for Georgia, which aspires to NATO and European Union membership, with the U.S. dispatching a major humanitarian aid mission.

European Union? But Georgia is not geographically located in Asia?
 

Is Cyrprus?  Malta?

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