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Author Topic: Regional Instability - Russia - Georgia  (Read 2774 times)
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SteveH
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« Reply #15 on: August 10, 06:44 PM »

Georgia move fails to halt raids

 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7552908.stm
 
Georgia insists that all its forces are now outside South Ossetia
Russia has continued air raids deep inside Georgia, after it rejected Tbilisi's announcement that it had called a ceasefire and wanted talks.

Jets bombed targets near Tbilisi, including the airport, and Russia said its warships had sunk a Georgian boat that approached and tried to attack.

Russia earlier took control of the breakaway region of South Ossetia, forcing Georgian troops to withdraw.

The US has accused Russia of seeking "regime change" in Georgia.
 
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 02:41 AM »

I would think that today/tomorrow at some point "recognised ceasefire" will come into effect.

I cannot understand why Georgia declared war on Russia at all - it was a major blunder.  It gave Russia a reason to disable the Georgian infrastructure (outside the immediate conflict zone) so that further "thoughts of engagement against Russia" (as per the declaration of War) would be more carefully considered.  (Standard military practice after all, in the case of war, to take out strategic/logistical centres of a country at war with you).  When Israel bombed the southern part of Lebanon "back into the stone age" in a very similar curcumstance and in a far more disproportionate way, no western countries were "calling" Isreal like they are Russia now.........I can't think why  Roll Eyes

I am neither pro or anti-russian and I think Russia has now made "it's point conclusively" and enough is enough but once again the smell of hypocracy from the "West" is starting to drift  Sad

Let us hope today, Russia will recognise a ceasefire and the bloodshed will stop.  Sad

The problems may not end there though - if there has been any "ethnic atrosities" as claimed by some, that may instigate War Crimes investigations and even more problems for Georgia.  With luck these claims will all be propoganda.  Undecided
« Last Edit: August 11, 01:12 PM by P-N » Logged

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« Reply #17 on: August 11, 05:18 AM »

Hi

I'm interested to find out what the Ukrainian locals think about whats going on? Are they in dismay over the sudden action taken by Georgia to declare war? are they worried that Ukraine may get embroiled?

This whole situation has caught everyone by surprise in Europe. On the surface its seems a little crazy for a small state like Georgia to make such a bold move on a Russia. And reciprocally the Russians are inevitably going to show strength. No one is winner in this!

This situation makes people like me even more nervous about making a move to the East!


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« Reply #18 on: August 11, 05:42 AM »

Difficult one to answer - I have Russian, Ukrainian and Georgian friends here in Odessa.  The Ukrainians I know (considering I am in Odessa and therefore it is more Russia orientated) are hoping Ukraine will have the good sense to stay out of this.  Thus far they seem to be for the most part.

Some of the Georgians think their President is "insane" and only became President through election rigging in the "democratic" elections they held.  Some of the Georgians support him.

The Russians I know were suprised it has happened but not suprised by the result.

All are united in the fact that they think it should stop now and enough is enough.

You would probably be suprised by the reaction (or lack of) here to be honest.

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« Reply #19 on: August 11, 02:00 PM »

Quote from the BBC:

Nato plea

On Monday EU envoys were attempting to broker an agreement between Tbilisi and Moscow.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili signed an EU-backed ceasefire, but the document was rejected by Moscow.

And leaders from both countries carried on a war of words, with Russia accusing Georgia of genocide, and President Saakashvili hitting back with claims of ethnic cleansing.

Russia has also called for an emergency meeting with Nato on the conflict.

Georgia's foreign minister is due to meet Nato on Tuesday, but Russia says the organisation should hear Moscow's side before making any decisions.

Nato's Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has accused Russian of using disproportionate force and violating Georgia's sovereignty.


**********************************************************************************

In view of Russia's request for a meeting with NATO and the response already given by Jaap de Hoop Scheffer there seems little prospect of success in brokering a peace deal anytime soon.  Cry Sad


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« Reply #20 on: August 11, 02:18 PM »

Difficult one to answer - I have Russian, Ukrainian and Georgian friends here in Odessa.  The Ukrainians I know (considering I am in Odessa and therefore it is more Russia orientated) are hoping Ukraine will have the good sense to stay out of this.  Thus far they seem to be for the most part.

Some of the Georgians think their President is "insane" and only became President through election rigging in the "democratic" elections they held.  Some of the Georgians support him.

The Russians I know were suprised it has happened but not suprised by the result.

All are united in the fact that they think it should stop now and enough is enough.

You would probably be suprised by the reaction (or lack of) here to be honest.



So, who is responsible for giving orders to kill civilians in Tshinvali??? If it's Saakashvili, he should be prosecuted!!!
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« Reply #21 on: August 11, 02:24 PM »

Oleg - if he did then you are correct - he should be subject to a War Crimes investigation.  Only when the dust settles will the truth really come out.

What does suprise me is the amount of uncorroborated claims being made - there must be 100's of satalites in orbit that can tell the time from your wrist watch they are that advanced.......but nobody can corroborate who is where and doing what?  Huh ......or does nobody want to corroborate who is where and doing what  Roll Eyes
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« Reply #22 on: August 11, 02:26 PM »

Difficult one to answer - I have Russian, Ukrainian and Georgian friends here in Odessa.  The Ukrainians I know (considering I am in Odessa and therefore it is more Russia orientated) are hoping Ukraine will have the good sense to stay out of this.  Thus far they seem to be for the most part.

Some of the Georgians think their President is "insane" and only became President through election rigging in the "democratic" elections they held.  Some of the Georgians support him.

The Russians I know were suprised it has happened but not suprised by the result.

All are united in the fact that they think it should stop now and enough is enough.

You would probably be suprised by the reaction (or lack of) here to be honest.



So, who is responsible for giving orders to kill civilians in Tshinvali??? If it's Saakashvili, he should be prosecuted!!!

While I certainly can't independently verify it.  I'm certain this is simply russian propaganda.  Russian TV (aka as Puty Put all the time TV) is not telling that Russian troops are bombing Georgia outside of SO.
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Oleg_76
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« Reply #23 on: August 11, 02:33 PM »

Difficult one to answer - I have Russian, Ukrainian and Georgian friends here in Odessa.  The Ukrainians I know (considering I am in Odessa and therefore it is more Russia orientated) are hoping Ukraine will have the good sense to stay out of this.  Thus far they seem to be for the most part.

Some of the Georgians think their President is "insane" and only became President through election rigging in the "democratic" elections they held.  Some of the Georgians support him.

The Russians I know were suprised it has happened but not suprised by the result.

All are united in the fact that they think it should stop now and enough is enough.

You would probably be suprised by the reaction (or lack of) here to be honest.



So, who is responsible for giving orders to kill civilians in Tshinvali??? If it's Saakashvili, he should be prosecuted!!!

While I certainly can't independently verify it.  I'm certain this is simply russian propaganda.  Russian TV (aka as Puty Put all the time TV) is not telling that Russian troops are bombing Georgia outside of SO.

What propaganda?? Have you seen what happened to Tshinvali and its civilians? No? Why don't western tv stations have any reporters there?? Are you saying Russia destroyed Tshinvali?

Let me tell you that Russian troops bombing Georgia is adequate response to the Georgian henocide in Tshinvali.
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« Reply #24 on: August 11, 02:46 PM »

No. I haven't seen it with my own eyes. Have you?  One reason is that Russia doesn't let western reporters anywhere near the region.

Are you getting your News from a Russian source?  Then consider are there any independent sources of information in Russia?  The answer is no!  They will spout and manufacture whatever Puty Put wants them to!
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« Reply #25 on: August 11, 02:53 PM »

No. I haven't seen it with my own eyes. Have you?  One reason is that Russia doesn't let western reporters anywhere near the region.

Are you getting your News from a Russian source?  Then consider are there any independent sources of information in Russia?  The answer is no!  They will spout and manufacture whatever Puty Put wants them to!

Do you consider CNN, Fox news, SKY news, etc. independent sources of information?? Well, as much as you would like to they are not... Why? Because they are owned by HuhHuhHuhHuh? Do I have to continue?
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« Reply #26 on: August 11, 03:05 PM »

Answer my question first, what are your sources of information? 

Yes there may be an agenda in western MSM but there is not one source directing what information get out.  The New York Times and Fox News do not have the same agenda.  Whereas Puty Puts Russian media take direction only from the top.  Furthermore they are known to make things up out of whole cloth.  Even Fox news doesn't do that.
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« Reply #27 on: August 11, 03:57 PM »

No. I haven't seen it with my own eyes. Have you?  One reason is that Russia doesn't let western reporters anywhere near the region.

Are you getting your News from a Russian source?  Then consider are there any independent sources of information in Russia?  The answer is no!  They will spout and manufacture whatever Puty Put wants them to!

Do you consider CNN, Fox news, SKY news, etc. independent sources of information?? Well, as much as you would like to they are not... Why? Because they are owned by HuhHuhHuhHuh? Do I have to continue?


And "owned by  Huh Huh Huh Huh" means? What sources of information do you trust?
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« Reply #28 on: August 12, 12:42 PM »

Well what a suprise, Russia called a halt to military action before the disfunctional organisation NATO and the UN got their acts together in any meaningful way and sent any deligations to Moscow.  The closest to getting to Moscow before the ceasefire was the non-military EU but it had been announced prior to their arrival.

Russia by this time has reinforced it's pressence in the two areas wanting independence from Georgia and the areas where Russia's passport holders live, thus achieving it's stated aims.

It has made (so far and having called a halt to armed conflict it is now unlikely) no move towards the critical oil pipeline running through south Georgia.

It is to be hoped the ceasefire is a lasting one, so that diplomacy can take over and the situation resolved in a long term way without further bloodshed on either side.  Other legal matters regarding war crimes will also have to be considered in due course.

There will be no doubt calls for Russian forces to leave these areas immediately, which will not happen (and may do more harm than good in the short term anyway with regards to humanitarian aid by way of temporary accommodation, food and water etc. (It is very unlikely Russia will not provide this after the recent reasoning for their actions to get there in the first place)).

The question is how long will it take to find suitable "peacekeepers" acceptable to both sides to take their place and make their presence "overstayed".

Thinking about the "peacekeepers" in Kosovo it was NATO and Russian troops there when the dust settled.  This time that seems more unlikely as Kosovo has no boarders with any "peacekeeping" nation.

There is no way any US or UK troops will be acceptable (although the tax payers of both countries won't be too upset for financial reasons).  It is probably just as well the UK will be seen as unacceptable as Gordon Clown.....I mean Brown...... is as likely to sign a declaration of war as he is his expences by mistake!

It is a situation which needs sorting "hastily" but not "speedily" as the saying goes and will require no small amount of magnanamousness from both Russia and Georgia to achieve it.  Difficult political maneouvering ahead for many, let us hope the common goal is the same Undecided  Sad




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« Reply #29 on: August 14, 03:53 AM »

Looks like things will be on a knife edge for a while longer yet.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/bush-sends-message-to-russia-with-aid-mission-to-georgia-894507.html

Why does take the US Military to deliver humanitarian aid to Georgia?  They will not be welcome in the break away regions of Georgia, they will not be welcomed by Russia (as the US would not welcome Russian troops in Mexico or Canada under this pretext).  They will be welcomed in Georgia (outisde of the seperatist zones) but if you are being welcomed with open arms, why do you need military personnel (who are needed elsewhere no doubt).

What is wrong with the Red Cross or Peace Corps or any other number of organisations distributing US humanitarian aid......don't they trust they EU or the UN to distribute it for them?  Of course they do, it is posturing pure and simple. 

The US did not send troops when the fighting was taking place despite pleas from Georgia to NATO (read the USA).  Now when a ceasefire has been agreed they are sent at the real risk of disabling the ceasefire - it will take one "rebel" to shoot one American or the other way around and there will be major problems.

As for this quote by Rice in the above article:

"This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia, where Russia can threaten a neighbour, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it. Things have changed."


1.   Russia did not occupy Tblisi for 1 second in this conflict, they did not overthrow the Government - what has 1968 got to do with it?

2.   Serbia - NATO bombed it disproportionately for weeks, invaded a sovereign nation and then forcibley created and recognised Kosovo against the will of that sovereign nation.  Russia did not go that far in Georgia - the last organistaion to do something like Russia did in Czechoslovakia in 1968 on the continent of Europe was NATO in Serbia in 1999.

3.   The last significant Government to be overthrown was Iraq - by whom?  The UN...no, NATO...no, the USA and the UK - both of which got their by misleading their populations over WMD.  We can try and justify it now by saying Sadam Hussian was a monster that needed removing............but we have left Robert Mugabi in power in Zimbabwe since 1980 who has continued to run a regieme every bit as bad and evil as Sadam's ever was.


Of any military presence from the international community, the most unwelcomed by the breakaway regions and Russia would be the USA followed by it's trained "lapdog" the UK.  With so many nations who can provide the "peacekeeping force" and distribute international aid on behalf of the continent, why does the US have to send troops to distribute aid?  Why not the French troops? - they want to be seen as having brokered the deal on behalf of the EU (not NATO it should be pointed out), they are trusted by both sides and have military forces to spare, as they are hardly over-stretching themselves via Iraq and Afghanistan (like the true NATO player they are  Roll Eyes) and will not be seen a provocative to anyone involved.

Georgia's western "superpower" friends would not help them in the conflict, not with one soldier, but now this "superpower" can spare the troops to hand out tents and food?

In the eyes of many (when you read the international press) the US let Georgia down, now by sending humanitarian aid via the military it will be seen by many to be both hypocritical and provocative no doubt. 

The answer maybe in "securing" the 3 oil and gas pipelines (and proposed 4th) in the south of Georgia, but Russia did not make a "play" for them, so securing them from who would be the question.

The leaders of the world should sit down and look at the organisations of NATO, UN and others to decided if they are still "fit for purpose" as any business leaders would do when they become so disfunctional and slow.  If they are no longer deemed "fit for purpose" then they should be changed so that they are.

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/adrian-hamilton/adrian-hamilton-we-are-still-fighting-the-cold-war-894362.html
« Last Edit: August 14, 04:10 AM by P-N » Logged

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