Regional Instability - Russia - Georgia

[P-N]

From CNN article:

Western nations have expressed support for Georgia, which aspires to NATO and European Union membership, with the U.S. dispatching a major humanitarian aid mission.

European Union? But Georgia is not geographically located in Asia?
 

Is Cyrprus?  Malta?

According to the maps they are - that said, they are all about to be redrawn by everyone so who knows 

[Carlushika]

According to this article, PoR supported Russia's actions although not all the party members agreed to toe the Yanukovych line.

http://www.unian.net/eng/news/news-269424.html

[ecocks]

Considering the next move...

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/31/eu.summit.russia.ap/index.html

[P-N]

The answer will be no sanctions - 27 countries cannot agree on anything.  Italy, Germany and France will be absolutely against sanctions and will not be persuaded otherwise.

Expelled from the G8 - not a chance, even Britain is anti expollsion from the G8 for Russia.  If they were expelled the G8 is a waste of time as it does not represent anything anymore.  To be worthy of representing anything it would be the G10 or even G12 including India, China, Brazil and possibly others.  Anyway it won't happen.

Disengaged from NATO Russia joint military exercises - possibly but who does it hurt most.  Russia shutting the logistical corridor via it's land and air to Afghanistan for NATO would be a major problem.

OSEC "peacekeepers/observers" on the ground in Georgia - as Russia yesterday stated it would welcome the move - every chance of that happening but that then acknowledges the fact these territories will eventually become like Kosovo unless the EU will leave it's "peacekeepers/observers" there indefinately.

Deny Russia WTO membership - possible but Russia has done very well without it so far, so a delay for them will not be the end of the world.  Also 2010 is when the decision is to be made - things can change dramatically (for the better or worse) in that time.

Freeze all dialogue with Russia - impossible.  The world needs Russian influence over N Korea, Iran (primarily) and others.

Freeze Russian corporate money in foreign accounts - also not going to happen.  Britain makes a nice profit through Russian money and also if there was any hint of it, the money will have already been moved.  There is no way personal monies will be frozen as there has been no "wrong doing" by any individual.

Net result from today will be the EU regrets Russia's decision to recognise the states, respects the sovereign territories of Georgia and would like Russia to reconsider it's recognition.  The EU will recognise the sovereign territory of Ukraine and warn against any further moves as in Georgia.  They will say the way forward is through diplomacy not threats or rhetoric.  They will say Russia cannot decided who enters NATO or the EU (despite the fact there is no way Georgia will be allowed entry to NATO now or in the near future by either Germany, Italy or France - regardless of what is said).

They may say they are will to engage more with Georgia in trade and politics in the future, but without a timetable.

Anything more than this will suprise me - The EU NATO members will also be keenly aware (energy dependence aside) that Russia has been approached by Iran to provide S300 missile defence systems (which is a very good system).  Should they supply it, Isreal may well decide it has to strike at Iran before/if the system is purchased and operational.  It would also complicate greatly any NATO action against Iran from the air - as like I say, the S300 is a very very good system.

As for the EU realigning it's energy dependence from Russia, that will take years, possibly decades (at least in Britians nuclear construction and commisioning).  Is Russia turning off the gas tap a real threat - throughout the cold war and the upheaval when the USSR broke up the gas kept flowing to the EU.  That said Russia today is not ruled by 70+ year old Communist Party Members who had no idea of the value of their resources.

So no sanctions but a "resolve" to resolve this with diplomacy over coffee and buscuits.

All of this done before that idiot Cheney gets here making his visit pointless from and EU (and especially Italian) perspective.  A little "show" in Georgia and Ukraine (which will not change the EU perspective) and visit his oil lines in a neighbouring country.

[P-N]

Well, I was not far off:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7592541.stm

[lakelander]

I agree you were not far off. It seems to me they have basically done nothing.

I doubt very much if the Russians will be quaking in their boots.

[P-N]

I agree you were not far off. It seems to me they have basically done nothing.

I doubt very much if the Russians will be quaking in their boots.

Like I said 27 countries will never agree on anything 100%.  As those 27 countries are all in NATO too, there is not much hope for making it into NATO for Georgia or Ukraine as it has to be a unanimous decision for entry - 1 "No" vote and it is all over until the next annual event.

Both Georgia and Ukraine (or any other want to be entrant) should come to that understanding pretty quickly if they have any sense and not count on entry any time soon.  The days of Germany, France and in particular Italy bowing to pressure which does not fall within their national interests have long gone.

Sooner or later British politics will deliver the British a political leader (probably later  ) which will look after Britain first and foremost which will not bow to pressures which go against British interests.

[Carlushika]

Sooner or later British politics will deliver the British a political leader (probably later  ) which will look after Britain first and foremost which will not bow to pressures which go against British interests.

Possibly not in my lifetime! For the moment and possibly a good many years to come, kowtowing to Brussels will continue.

[P-N]

For those intersted in the possible fallout over energy from Russia, I had an email yesterday (once your on the list, your on the list) regarding working on the pipeline going out of Russia to Asia - ie. the other way from Europe.

It has been long in the offing (to those who monitor the oil & gas sites) so not a new concept in reaction to the "latest developments" but it may be that it's progress will now be "hastened" in light of the current circumstances.

[Tim]

As for the EU realigning it's energy dependence from Russia

it looks like rather a paranoia to me after all these events in South Ossetia. During that operation it cut neither electric power lines not natural gas delivered to Georgia – at the same time its peacekeepers were murdered by Georgians. If it is not a supplier reliable enough, I don’t know what else reliable may mean.

Net result from today will be the EU regrets Russia's decision to recognise the states, respects the sovereign territories of Georgia and would like Russia to reconsider it's recognition.

They’d better discuss why about a half of Georgians fled the country, the opposition crushed, its leaders either murdered or run away, and peaceful meetings repressed as it happened in 2006. He is even a first and only suspect of killing a Georgian PM Zurab Ĵvania back in 2003.

God knows I don’t like Medvedev and Putin at all and now I have one more good reason for this feeling - they didn’t order liberating Georgia from that tyran and butcher.

[P-N]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4682003.ece

 

[P-N]

Russia agrees to pull out of Georgia within a month, (according to this), with the obvious exceptions of the 2 regions it has recognised:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7604376.stm

[P-N]

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL272497420080909?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

[P-N]

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSLD12378020080914

If true, the plan was hardly suprising, the implimentation of it certainly was. 

[P-N]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7616576.stm

Just when I thought that if Russia pulls back this month, monitors are on the ground and the EU talks commence in October with Russia (which currently seems to be what will happen.......but things change) and something like "stability" in the immediate future and the immediate region will occur, someone has to go and up the "anti" for no justified reason (that I can see) before these things occur.

He is certainly cannot be talking on behalf of Italy, probably not Germany or France but maybe the majority I guess.

[Tags:]

Jump to: Please select a destination: ----------------------------- Community ----------------------------- => Introductions ----------------------------- Expatriate Life ----------------------------- => Q&A => Health and Medical => Events and Meetings => I recommend => Handy Things to Know => Languages ----------------------------- Business ----------------------------- => ESL Discussion Group => Incorporation => Banking and Finances => Opportunities => Private Entrepreneurship => Information exchange ----------------------------- Current Events ----------------------------- => Democracy and Beyond => Ukrainian News => International News ----------------------------- Meet compatriots ----------------------------- => Polish Forum ----------------------------- Going Out ----------------------------- => Shopping => Weekend Breaks => Theatre&Movie => Eating&Drinking => Sport ----------------------------- Expatriate Jobs ----------------------------- => Jobs Available => Jobs Wanted ----------------------------- Expatriate Cafe ----------------------------- => Hobbies => History Today => Book club => Fun, Games and Jokes => Relationships ----------------------------- Information ----------------------------- => Your Expat Ukraine => Help desk