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Author Topic: Regional Instability - Russia - Georgia  (Read 2773 times)
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P-N
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« on: August 06, 08:45 PM »

Seems there is a problem which may or maynot become a big problem in the back yard fairly soon.........sigh Undecided Cry

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/tiny-rebel-region-brings-russia-and-georgia-to-brink-of-war-886101.html
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 03:16 PM »

Georgia offers rebels ceasefire 

Georgian jets attack separatists in South Ossetia
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7548715.stm

Georgian troops are expected to observe a three-hour ceasefire to let civilians leave the besieged capital of separatist South Ossetia, say reports.

Georgia has launched a major offensive against rebel strongholds and claims to have surrounded the capital Tskhinvali.

Russia, who Georgia accuses of arming the rebels, has warned aggression would lead to retaliation from Moscow.

At least 15 civilians are said to have died as well as several Russian peacekeepers based in Tskhinvali.

Nato, the US and the European Union have all called for an immediate end to the hostilities.
 
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 10:54 PM »

.......................sigh, but it has been a long time coming  Cry
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 11:59 PM »

Yes, a sad story long in coming. My guess is that as long as the fighting stays in Ossetia it will just be support rhetoric and saber rattling from the US and other Georgian allies. If the fighting or bombing moves into the capital, Tbisili, that would be a different story. The more disturbing pices of the new stories are reports of "ethnic cleansing" and deliberate civilian deaths.
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 02:26 AM »

Although Im not a big fan of whats happening in Russia theses days I dont trust Sakashvilli in any way, he rigged that last election which was corrupt as hell but the west was slow to condemn him.

I also find it uncomfortable that at every interview he is doing he is sitting in front of an EU flag, even Sergey Lavrov has commented on this today!!!!

Yes, a sad story long in coming. My guess is that as long as the fighting stays in Ossetia it will just be support rhetoric and saber rattling from the US and other Georgian allies. If the fighting or bombing moves into the capital, Tbisili, that would be a different story. The more disturbing pices of the new stories are reports of "ethnic cleansing" and deliberate civilian deaths.
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 10:31 AM »

I don't really understand the timing of this move by Georgia.  It has been this way since 1990.  Now when they have no real allies by way of recognised organisation they make this move.

It will not help their cause with NATO or the EU and there were press releases from Ukrainian government websites denying that Ukraine had helped arm the rebels after accusations from Georgia........thus alienating Ukraine from themselves too.

I too muttered to myself about the EU flag being behind him during Georgian press releases. 

Georgia will get no help militarily from the EU - it is not a military organsiation.

There were already peace-keepers from Russia, the UK and others in the region (sanctioned by the UN or not I have no idea).

Not a chance NATO will help (as Germany and France amongst others will not want to get into this brawl).

I don't even think there will be that much sabre rattling either as Russia's actions (considering a number of Russian peace-keepers were killed) could thus far be considered "conservative" compared to nations like Isreal and Turkey when similar situations involving their citizens and their boarders have occured.

As stated, an all out assault on Tblisi is a different matter but is hardly a likely scenario.

The timing of this, considering Georgia's political ambitions towards the West seems a little off to me....other than every world leader is in China for the Olympics or on holiday.

If this does not sort itself out soon it is a UN problem, which would no doubt lead to another "Kosovo" style result.

« Last Edit: August 09, 11:19 AM by P-N » Logged

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« Reply #6 on: August 09, 04:46 AM »

Russian jets attack Georgian city 

Footage reportedly shows Russian tanks entering South Ossetia

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7550804.stm

Russian jets have carried out a series of strikes on military targets in the central Georgian city of Gori, close to the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

Most of the targets seem to have been military bases, but Georgian officials said a number of civilians had been killed in residential buildings.
 
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 10:15 AM »

Bummer....

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/09/georgia.ossetia/index.html

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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 11:19 AM »

Looks like Georgia are on their own in this untill a cease-fire is negotiated.  Declaring war on Russia (as of today) is yet another step which will make their western looking aspirations discipate faster than they can imagine.

Those nations who were anti-NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine will cite this as justification for their refusal in February this year and re-visiting it at this December's NATO conference is now an absolute forgone conclusion that their wait will continue.

The ramifications of their membership having been granted in February (or even a MAP) would have been catastrophic.

Whoever is giving advice to the Georgian PM is either giving bad advice or he is not heeding it.  Absolutely no organisation or individual country will be rushing to their aide having declared war on Russia. 

I can see no quick fix here - NATO will not get involved militarily or Russia will turn off the gas tap thus NATO AND the EU businesses will cease to operate as far as Europe is concerned.  The EU has no military mandate and the creation of one would mean then end of NATO eventually.  The USA is in need of and is getting assistance from Russia to "contain and negotiate" with North Korea and Iran both of whom prefer to talk to the Kremlin than Washington, thus making Georgia a "blip" on the radar compared to these 2 countries.  A UN peacekeeping negotiated agreement would end with a "Kosovo" style arrangement in the long term, which would please Russia but not Georgia (and probably lead to Russia recognising Kosovo which it and half the planet still do not, in return for international recognition of the conflict areas in Georgia in a similar style).

The UN, after 2 days, still has not agreed wording for a cease fire, despite Russia making the initial request and pushing the UN to get on with it, and now, during this delay, Georgia has declared war on Russia, giving Russia a mandate (as per Northern Iraq v Turkey, Palistine v Isreal earlier this year) to carry out pre-emptive strikes, invade other states sovergein soil to "crush" possible threats as did Turkey/Isreal in each circumstance.

Both circumstances involving Turkey in Northern Iraq and Isreal in Palistine this year were "tolorated" by the UN, NATO, the USA and the planet.........as long as they didn't go on for too long.  That is now Russia's mandate and precident (as if you need one on a country which has just declared war on you).

For Georgia, there is neither the political or economic will from "would be allies" to get involved - the UN is nothing but a peackeeping force "at it's best" and to have declared war on Russia and not Russia on Georgia, they have put themselves into a corner from which I can see no easy escape.  Roll Eyes

« Last Edit: August 09, 12:14 PM by P-N » Logged

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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 12:14 PM »

I think it would be a great victory for Georgia if they succeed to get the UN involved.  Maybe UN peacekeepers which would be a great step forward as the so-called Russian peacekeepers are there to support the local separatist government.
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 12:18 PM »

I think it would be a great victory for Georgia if they succeed to get the UN involved.  Maybe UN peacekeepers which would be a great step forward as the so-called Russian peacekeepers are there to support the local separatist government.

I think the UN is about their only external option to be honest but may not give Georgia the long term result it would want.
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 12:23 PM »

I think it would be a great victory for Georgia if they succeed to get the UN involved.  Maybe UN peacekeepers which would be a great step forward as the so-called Russian peacekeepers are there to support the local separatist government.

I think the UN is about their only external option to be honest but may not give Georgia the long term result it would want.

Anyway getting a real peacekeepers in place and not those that simply support the other side would be a victory.  Even without the desired result...it would weaken the separatists presumably.

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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 12:25 PM »

I think it would be a great victory for Georgia if they succeed to get the UN involved.  Maybe UN peacekeepers which would be a great step forward as the so-called Russian peacekeepers are there to support the local separatist government.

I think the UN is about their only external option to be honest but may not give Georgia the long term result it would want.

Anyway getting a real peacekeepers in place and not those that simply support the other side would be a victory.  Even without the desired result...it would weaken the separatists presumably.



I think we will probably find out  Undecided
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« Reply #13 on: August 10, 03:42 AM »

It would seem Russia has decided to try and make this a short and swift engagement.......let's just hope they don't over do it:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/georgian-troops-pull-out-as-russian-warships-arrive-889888.html

I hope that for the truely innocents caught up in this, it is concluded in the shortest period of time possible.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/war-in-the-caucasus-inside-the-battle-zone-889755.html

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« Reply #14 on: August 10, 05:07 AM »

I did have genuine hopes for the "Russian/EU security talks" which were instigated by Russia and due to occur soon.  This may have stalled any progress which may have occured.

What are the chances of an international peacekeeping deal which is not brokered by or comprising of a massive NATO influence (thereby being seen by all sides as neutral) and therefore acceptable to Russia?  (It is, after all Georgia who has declared war on Russia). 

That said, the speed these organisations work at, (Russia and the USA being permanent members of the UN Security Council and therefore never likely to agree with one another over "wording," particularly when one is directly involved,) it is quite probable the "fighting" will have stopped (even if Georgia are still technically at war with Russia, as per their decree) and any peacekeeping will be similar to that of Cyprus and consist of a long term presence only.

The question would be which nations make up the "peacekeeping force" which would be acceptible to both sides.  How many truely "neutral" nations are there left which are acceptible to both sides AND that would want to have a presence in the region under these circustances?
 
Of the acceptable EU/NATO countries, there would be possibly Germany, Denmark (other Sacandinavians also) and Italy.  As NATO only countries, there is really only Turkey, but both sides may have objections to Turkey for different reasons.  No Middle Eastern/Asian country would want to get involved.  From the "India's" there is really only India which stands a chance of acceptability from both sides and the South America's (Agrentina, Brazil etc) are not likely to want to get involved in an "Eastern Europe" brawl either.

There is every chance the "serious fighting" will have stopped before these organisations even get their act together  Roll Eyes

 
 
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Tags: politics  Conflict  War  Russia  Georgia 
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