Checking the Expat Pulse

[ecocks]

and also allowing folks to go on record with their predictions....

Call it how YOU see it. American, Canadian, Italian, Estonian, Brit, Ukrainian, Celta graduate, whatever, how do you see the election shaping up and what will it mean for this region?  And do try to avoid personal attacks, just put forth your opinions. 

We can run 2-3 repeats of this on the 1st of September and again in October.

[Vera]

Obama narrow < 5 %

[P-N]

Impossible to say - opinions polls count for very little in the US system.

When a candidate can win the "popular vote" ie. more of the US population voted for them than the other candidate but can still lose because of "super deligates" (who probably wait to see which party/person will give them the most power/influence/opportunity) is open to some debate - that said it is over now.

It would be easier to ascertain which way the super deligates will go and then see if there is sufficient public support to attach to their decisions before a probable winner can be guessed at in party nominations.

That said at present now all the games have finished - too close to call.

[Packman]

I'll call it solid for Obama.  The Christian right is not going to come out for McCain like they did for Bush last time.  This is due to Obama sweet words for the evangelicals and McCains lack of evident religiosity.  Of course McCain will win with this group not turnout will not be what it was for Bush who had a great get out the vote effort last time.  Furthermore, Obama is investing heavily in voter registration.  New voters, poeple disgusted with Bush policies and a higher that usual turnout among black folks spell Obamas strong victory.  Yes some latent racists won't vote for Obama but few of these people voted for Kerry last time.  Dems are invigerated.  Reps turnout will be mild.  My thoughts. 

[WorldlyPatriot]

Today, I call it "advantage McCain."

The Georgian situation, and Russian aggressiveness, play right into McCain's strengths.  Knowledgeable Americans do not want to take a chance on an inexperienced political and foreign-policy novice.  Obama is a great cheerleader and change-agent, but compared to McCain, he has little credibility in matters of international affairs and national defense.

If Russia makes any more provocative moves in Eastern Europe, it's likely Obama will be defeated.

[P-N]

Surely it would depend upon who Obama appoints to work with him - if he appoints someone with a sound and undisputable military background in his "inner circle" would that not go someway to negating this?  If "rumour" was to get out that such a candidate was willing to accept such a position should Obama win, would it change things?

Looking at Europe, Obama's "tour" was a big success (even if it doesn't win him votes necessarily).  What it has done is create articles like the following about McCain:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/andrew_sullivan/article4545978.ece

Artilces like this are preparing Europe for the likelihood of going "head to head" with the USA on foreign policy should McCain get elected.  It may not be fair coverage but it will make him very unpopular before he even takes office, should he win of course.

[Packman]

Surely it would depend upon who Obama appoints to work with him - if he appoints someone with a sound and undisputable military background in his "inner circle" would that not go someway to negating this?  If "rumour" was to get out that such a candidate was willing to accept such a position should Obama win, would it change things?

Looking at Europe, Obama's "tour" was a big success (even if it doesn't win him votes necessarily).  What it has done is create articles like the following about McCain:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/andrew_sullivan/article4545978.ece

Artilces like this are preparing Europe for the likelihood of going "head to head" with the USA on foreign policy should McCain get elected.  It may not be fair coverage but it will make him very unpopular before he even takes office, should he win of course.

The only person Obama and McCain respectively will decide who will work with them before the election will be the Vice-presidential candidate.  Conventional wisdom suggests Obama should pick a foreign policy expert and McCain should pick a economic type nominee.  However these so-called needs could be thrown out the window for a VP nominee who might allow each candidate to win a state they otherwise might not.  In this scenario, you have Evan Bye (sp) of Indiana and Tim Kaine of Virginia for Obama.  McCain might go with Charlie Christ of Florida or Mitt Romney (who has family ties to Michigan), of course Romney with experience in business could fit the bill for the first criteria layed out above.

[P-N]

From your post, I assume neither has chosen their candidate VP's as yet.  I can therefore cannot see (if these have such a major influence) the relevance of this poll until those individuals have been identified. 

[ecocks]

An interesting choice would/might have been Wesley Clark, a retired 4-star general who commanded NATO forces during the Kosovo-Bosnia conflict.  Unfortunately, he alienated a few more of the military with a few unwisely chosen swipes at McCain's war record and other comments.  Obama distanced from him and his name is off the list of possibles these days it seems.

[Packman]

An interesting choice would/might have been Wesley Clark, a retired 4-star general who commanded NATO forces during the Kosovo-Bosnia conflict.  Unfortunately, he alienated a few more of the military with a few unwisely chosen swipes at McCain's war record and other comments.  Obama distanced from him and his name is off the list of possibles these days it seems.

He was my first choice for Obama till the recent dust-up over his comments.  He'll need to settle for Sec. of Defense assuming the old homophone Sam Nun doesn't get it.

[3000ftup]

I think it is way too close to call.  The Republicans negative ads about Obama are working, that tactic has always worked for Republicans (low road politicing as it is)  I always feel that a candidate should speak about what he/she stands for and plan to accomplish, not just speak about what is wrong with the opponent.   McCain did get  a sizable boost from the forum last saturday night, I just cannot trust him the way his eye movements.  He can't look people in the eye!   On the other hand, Obama has a much more geniune facial body language.   Yes, they have very different views on many issues facing the country.  America is extremely polarized, so I don't think either one will run away with the election.  I just hope that USA does not end up with another war monger.  USA needs to regain world respect, and give peace a chance.  On that point, I would like Obama best.  I wish Bloomberg would have decided to run, he is more of a centerist.  I kind of think Obama will pick Joe Biden.  As for McCain, maybe Charlie Crist to clinch Florida.

[ecocks]

I agree really.  My expectation is that McCain will win by a slim margin, but it could fall the other way based upon just a few factors as we come down to the wire.  And, in another week or so, as the VP's are named, we could see significant jumps in position.

[Packman]

I agree really.  My expectation is that McCain will win by a slim margin, but it could fall the other way based upon just a few factors as we come down to the wire.  And, in another week or so, as the VP's are named, we could see significant jumps in position.

Don't underestimate Obama's voter registration drive.  Its likely this is not picked up in the polls.  The guy was a community organizer and ran a very successful voter drive in Chicago.  Point being he knows how to do this.  Here's an article about the effort in Virginia.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/17/AR2008081702592.html

[3000ftup]

Packman, I agree that the Democrats have gotten a large amount of registration, and they will need it!  On the other hand, the Republican machine of bald face lies about Obama and their (low road politicing, which they are always effective with... like swift boat campaign... that hurt Kerry big time) will probably make the election a very close margin, and may be decided again by some judges, as it was with Bush in Florida.  I question Americans intelligence, when that kind of tactic sways them.  I personally hope you are right!

[P-N]

Just a thought - at present there is two houses run by the Democrats but a Republican President (I think anyway, but I maybe wrong).  I have no idea how the USA gets anything done effectively in a situation like this - but it's not my problem.

Obviously Obama is a much more appealing prospect to Europe and probably the Middle East and Asia, in fact probably to the whole planet outside of the USA as he is not seen as another "War Monger" past, present or future.  This, however, should not and probably will not influence the US public - they should vote for who is likely to best deal with the internal issues of the USA.  To consider the rest of the planet in their voting over and above internal issues could be interpreted as either "very noble" or "very stupid".  

I do not claim to follow the candidates at all, so Obama maybe a complete imbolsil with nonsensical policies for all I know.  There is no point in me following it too closely as not being American I have no say in any outcome.

Is it at all possible that there will be a Democratic President and 2 Republican houses, ie. a mirror of the current situation?

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